Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Deficit spending as a Stimulus

Rich(ie) asks me to comment on deficit spending in the form of a stimulus and/or as a stimulus to a downtrodden economy.
His/Their theory being that: The way to solve an economic malaise is to throw money at a problem. Really it is, the theory is that deflation, the economic condition which we now exist, in terms of assets (homes, stocks) can only be cured with government intervention.

Literally they want us to throw money at the problem, anywhere, to restart the economic engine and more importantly, more money will cause inflation in the various asset classes and restore prosperity.

Here is the rub, and being a scientist by trade, I can usually look at data and theory and find (if it exists) the hole, the assumption, the conflict, the bias which causes the theory to be invalid. (Which is why I can opine on the bias involved in Global Warming research with such confidence).

Their assumption, and it is an important one to their economic ideas, is that if citizens are allowed to keep their money, they will just save it, producing no economic effect. This theory established before, the Internet, online banking, and ignoring the human want to achieve.

During "the great stimulus", the argument was over tax cuts vs. shovel ready projects which were sure to stimulate the economy. (In truth, shovel ready projects were by definition already planned and funded so in reality there was NO economic effect, just pay back for votes).

A pause here, "the great stimulus", it was money we did not have and a decision was made how to distribute it, it could have been with across the board tax cuts or tax holidays (both of which were proposed) or as was done, directed by the Federal government.

Now, here we are a year and one half later and we remain mired in a severe recession. One might legitimately ask, if this theory is in fact true, should not throwing almost A TRILLION dollars at a problem fix it? Now their answer...it was not enough, let's do more!

Their theory rests on...the multiplier effect.

Yes!, they say, taking money with taxes, and having the Federal Government use it to build infrastructure is more productive than letting citizens keep their money and engage in commerce. Really?, the next Microsoft or McDonalds will grow from building a bridge? That is their multiplier?

So we return to deficits, and deficit spending in a recession. Rich(ie)'s theory (as do the Krugman and The Nation articles) ignores today's condition were we have used all of our bullets. Yes! Too much money was spent previously, but just because previous sins were committed, we should not repeat them now! We have no reserve and a tidal wave is coming. We cannot "stimulate" our way out of this mess. If it worked, if  any"stimulus" worked, then the Bush stimulus, TARP, Stimulus one, the Auto bailout, or something would have worked, it unquestionably did not!

The only way we are going to get out of this economic mess is with SPENDING CUTS AND TAX CUTS! We don't have time for a commission, we need to raise the retirement age now, we need to cut taxes to promote economic growth (are you really going to argue that a government stimulus promotes more economic growth than a tax cut?). Krugman is wrong, we and the rest of the developed world are not far from Greece.

Your party better get thrown out in November.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

I like it. I much prefer it when you write your own blogs, and discuss your opinions, instead of trashing Rich. Much more interesting.

Baxter said...

I agree with Eric - I prefer Jim's original work to cut and paste, which I can get on my own.

Jim didn't answer the primary question. Is it okay to deficit spend during growth but not during recession? Yes or no, Doc?

Our fav "scientist" appears to be a struggling sophomore on the topic of economics. First and foremost, our economic conditions determine the best policy. Dr J acts as if one size fits all, no matter the circumstances. It is one more reason that I am disappointed he has not finished Bruce Bartlett's book describing why supply side tax cuts were helpful in 1981 but not appropriate in 2010. This from an author of the 1981 cuts and former high official with Cato and the Heritage Foundation. Get a clue, Lou...

There is plenty of cash around right now, which tells us that supply side tax cuts are not in order or needed. The world is awash in cash. Interest rates are at all time lows. We do not need economic policy to foster capital creation - it is there just looking for someplace decent to invest. Why isn't that money out there building plants and buying equipment? Simple - why do that when you are operating at 65% of capacity? So, Jim - we are not short of SUPPLY, it is DEMAND we lack.

What is the best demand generator? In a word, SPENDING. What brought us out of WWII? Tax cuts? Er, no. Spending, and a lot of it. What was WWII, economically, if not a massive stimulus program?

There is nothing wrong with savings, Doc, which is where tax cuts would go. Its just not what we need at this very moment. Sure - our savings rate needs to increase long term, yadda, yadda, yadda. What we need right now is DEMAND. Once we have sufficient demand our private industry will invest in plants and equipment and they will have no trouble finding the money. It is everywhere, it seems, right now for meritorious uses - the latter being in short supply.

Our "great stimulus" was >$300B tax cuts and >$500B spending by the way. I would have doubled or tripled the spending component if it were up to me. So - it has been a failure?

We have economic growth after inheriting an economy that was falling off a cliff. We have modest job growth after finding >700K going away every month. So, our economic policy has been a failure? Really?

Your spending cuts, Doc, are the very same medicine that Hoover (R) prescribed for the problem. Was he a "scientist" too? How did things work out for him?

Finally - on the topic of global warming - the Good Doc knows no more than the guy that hands him a towel at the club. The difference is, the bath attendant knows that atmospheric scientists know more than he ever will and they are united in their opinion. To contradict the Phds in the field seems downright... sophomoric?

Jim G. said...

Jim didn't answer the primary question. Is it okay to deficit spend during growth but not during recession? Yes or no, Doc?


Really? You are going to ask me that question after my post? Really?

The best and most prosperous society is the one with the most freedom. To keep us free, we need to live under the rule of law and be allowed to engage in free commerce (hold on to your pants, I'm getting there).

You economic "fiddlers" will never understand the beauty of free people making their economic choices, however, you need only look to the multiple examples of our Capitalist achievement to understand the inadequacies of your economic manipulation.

To answer your question, deficits are pretty much bad, I would prefer a limited government which lives within it means, however, yes under some circumstances deficits may occur, but, at some point the bill comes due. That time is now, and we cannot afford, under any circumstances, to continue with our present massive deficits. This is why Krugman must so loudly protest we are not in danger of becoming Greece, because to acknowledge otherwise, would be to acknowledge that we can no longer afford to run massive deficits and must cut spending.

Now I have a question for you. Should Greece continue to run massive deficits or is their path to recovery the austerity program they have initiated and, second question, without their austerity program (cut spending!), will they ever control their deficit?

Baxter said...

Doc, you are making progress. First you decry "fiddlers" and then you make an argument that "we cannot continue with our present massive deficits" apparently because of the debt that has been accumulated since the dawn of the Reagan era. Apparently, context does matter!

I agree about freedom and free commerce. I am a big fan of capitalistic achievement. What "economic manipulation" are you referring to? I simply want informed and appropriate policy in the context of the current economic environment. You seem to be arguing for a Lassez Faire policy unlike anything we have seen on our lifetime. Welcome the to 21st Century, Doc. Please leave your Coolidge/Hoover policies at the door.

I'll answer your question much more quickly and directly than you answer mine: It depends. Greece is now caught in a debt trap (I agree that we are on that path, but we still have a ways to go - I have told you that through 8 years of Bush deficits during growth). Pure austerity will tank the economy and produce less revenue to pay the debt than would a more robust economy. But can they afford deficits to stimulate the economy either through spending or tax cuts? Will anyone buy their bonds if they appear to be hopelessly profligate and absent discipline?

The Greeks must walk a fine line and their circumstances are obviously much worse than ours. Their choices are quite limited - perhaps their "starve the beast" contingent has had more success than Grover Norquist's minions have had here. They need to find spending efficiencies and ways of raising revenue that do not stifle economic growth. Let us hope that we do not find ourselves in the position that the Greeks do today.

So - what should the Americans do to avoid the fate of our Hellenic friends? It won't be easy, but what we need to do is what I have been saying all along. We need to gradually raise the age of our primary entitlement programs. We need to freeze discretionary spending. We need to raise revenues through carbon and VAT taxes. We need to reconcile our spending with our revenue without killing the goose that laid the golden egg. None of this is manipulation - it is simply good government.

I have high hopes for the Debt Commission. I expect that our Congress will find the courage of the 1993 Democratic caucus come December. I expect that this president will balance his budget in his second term - something the Republicans have not done in 50 years.

Lets just see what Obama says he will do - because that is what he does.

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Baxter said...

Please excuse the repeated postings - I am in a hotel with poor internet service that told me my posts couldn't go through due to size. Then, they posted them.

This would never happen in Europe...

:)

Jim G. said...

Here we go with European superiority again!

Besides, you were practically in Mexico.