Monday, November 1, 2010

Composition of the Electorate is Everything

Yesterday, the Washington Post released a poll showing that likely voters supported the GOP by 6 points (49-43) in a generic congressional ballot. This spread would lead to a gain of 50 - 60 seats. Registered voters actually prefer the Democrats by 4 points (47-43), which would lead to retention of Democratic control if they all voted.

Further - in other polls - the "enthusiasm gap" is gauged to be 10+ points higher on the GOP side. Anecdotally, I have seen this to be the case and I do not believe that Democratic attempts to rally the base have borne much fruit. Tomorrow will be a good day for the GOP.

My bother-in-law suggested yesterday that the stock market will do very well going forward should the Republicans decisively win. So, I thought I would check out the record:

S&P 500 - Close Price at Inauguration - % Change - % per Annum

Obama: 805.22/1,183.26/+46.9%/+26.4%
GW Bush: 1,342.54/805.22/-40.0%/-5.0%
Clinton: 433.37/1,342.54/+309.8%/+38.72%
Reagan: 131.65/286.63/+217.7%/+27.2%

What is most impressive about this is that both Democrats inherited massive deficits and reduced them. Both Republicans created massive deficits. If I were to create a job growth chart, it would show similar results. Over 20mm jobs were created under Clinton, net zero under GW Bush. Facts are stubborn things, no?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I don't think there is any correlation between political elections and the stock market. You would be better off paying attention to the length of women's skirts.

Which is always a good idea anyway.