Any attempt to predict next fall is just futile. Yes a sitting President will be hard, incredibly hard, to dethrone. But just examining the daily up and down of the Republican candidates, two long term, well known politicians, shows how fragile political support can be.
The economy seems to be mending a little...or perhaps not. Depends which party you ask.
Does the incredible repudiation of Obama's policies by the 2010 voters extend into a Presidential cycle?
There is clearly a strong conservative desire to beat Obama, a desire that will motivate turn out, which, I think, will be lacking for the President this cycle (at least not as strong as his first go around), especially-and you heard it here first, with black voters-who I think will return to there normal, historic turnout.
Except...there is a campaign to run...and negative advertisements to show, and motivation to generate, by both sides.
But this is it, it has come to our time of reconing. Are we going down the pathway to an entitlement, Socialistic, Greece country or will we return to free market capitalizm, self responsibility and freedom.
We shall see, the left (with the assistance of the dim witted right) has suscessfully landed over 50% of the country on government largess...and now that we have more takers than givers than everyone votes equally....oops.
It may come down to which camp has the better October surprise.