Any attempt to predict next fall is just futile. Yes a sitting President will be hard, incredibly hard, to dethrone. But just examining the daily up and down of the Republican candidates, two long term, well known politicians, shows how fragile political support can be.
The economy seems to be mending a little...or perhaps not. Depends which party you ask.
Does the incredible repudiation of Obama's policies by the 2010 voters extend into a Presidential cycle?
There is clearly a strong conservative desire to beat Obama, a desire that will motivate turn out, which, I think, will be lacking for the President this cycle (at least not as strong as his first go around), especially-and you heard it here first, with black voters-who I think will return to there normal, historic turnout.
Except...there is a campaign to run...and negative advertisements to show, and motivation to generate, by both sides.
But this is it, it has come to our time of reconing. Are we going down the pathway to an entitlement, Socialistic, Greece country or will we return to free market capitalizm, self responsibility and freedom.
We shall see, the left (with the assistance of the dim witted right) has suscessfully landed over 50% of the country on government largess...and now that we have more takers than givers than everyone votes equally....oops.
It may come down to which camp has the better October surprise.
1 comment:
I enjoy analyzing the horse race, especially with all the drama that the GOP primaries have offered. That said, nine months is an incredibly long time in politics and anything can happen.
A lot of damage has been done to Romney and his negative ratings now exceed his positive. At the same time, he is toughening up as a campaigner and when he wins the nomination, the narrative will switch to what a winner he is for awhile.
The economy is doing better and I expect the tempo to pick up steam. It reminds me a lot of 1984. The 2010 "repudiation" of Obama will look a lot like 1994 did in 1996. The electorate in a presidential election is much larger, darker, and younger than in a mid-term.
The conservatives are dying to beat Obama but there is one big problem. They hate Romney too. His inability to decisively beat such a ridiculous field by now is a very bad sign. His last opponent standing is Newt Gingrich for crying out loud, who whipped him in South Carolina. There will be hard core conservatives staying home on election day if they do not have a third party candidate to vote for.
Obama's base will not be as enthusiastic as the pre-Honeymoon phase, but they are still in love. Turn out will be strong - including the black folks - to the extent that their votes are not suppressed as intended in many states.
America will be able to compare Obama vs Bush/GOP ideology and Clinton vs Bush. Why would we ever want to go back to the policies that put us in the ditch in the first place? While partisan, it is an easy argument to make.
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