Michael Brooks is what the New York Times calls a conservative. Not my favorite, but I do think he gets to count as thoughtful and perhaps he could even be called balanced. Here is his article from today which I think provides a decent summary.
It looks to me as though Obama will win reelection because we have yet to see the candidate that can beat him. The polls show that the country believes we are going very much in the wrong direction, which I presume means they want a change in that direction. But Ryan's proposal is too easily demagogued and Obama loves class warfare so, as his speech showed, he will use fear and distortion to win the day. And it will probably work.
The Dems are almost certain to lose control of the Senate, however, simply because they must defend 22 incumbent seats in 2012 as opposed to the Republicans who must defend only 11.
That will set up the chance for a deal similar to that achieved on welfare reform between Clinton and a Republican Congress.
Obama won't want to be the guy tagged with fundamental changes to the Entitlement State, but he might want the chance to appear historic for some reason other than being the first President born outside the borders (just kidding!). We won't get a deal now, but the next election cycle may create the opening for some meaningful progress.
All the best,