There is no question that the right wing is far more energized right now than the Democrats. The Teabaggers feel they have the Big Mo - but I think they have already peaked. A few points:
Much is made of the last three statewide elections (VA, NJ & MA) in which the Republican won. This can be a tell, however, I think it largely rests on the quality of the candidates. In fact, two of the three GOP winners were so-called moderates with Scott Brown pro-choice and supportive of Massachusett's universal health care coverage law.
Go to Youtube and watch the respective candidates. It is apparent that Scott Brown was a far more compelling candidate than Coakley. Watching them on Youtube I am surprised it was as close as it was. As for the "most Democratic state", I will remind you that Mitt Romney was elected governor a short time ago and before that, Paul Cellucci and William Weld. From 1991 through 2007, the GOP held the governors mansion in the "most Democratic state." What Massachusetts has never done is elect a woman governor or senator.
What of NJ? Well - I am a fan of Jon Corzine - but I always thought his career would be short lived. He is an intellectual, he wears a beard and he spoke bluntly. He lacks political charisma. I think that he has too much self respect (or inner peace) to do what is required to be a successful pol these days. Along comes Chris Christie - a sensible centrist who loves Bruce Springsteen (he has seen him 120 times) - running for office in a state with the highest tax burden and the highest relative deficit in the nation. He is running against against a banker right after the bank crisis and bail out. Again, the question is "why was it as close as it was?" New Jersey has not reelected a Democratic governor since 1978 (for those of you from north Scottsdale, that is 32 years ago).
Finally - Old Dominion- a state that voted for GWB both times. I will again refer you to Youtube and ask who the better candidate was. "Bob means jobs" McDonnell whipped the stuttering Creigh Deeds and it is no wonder. Even today, after Obama turned the state blue, the Democrats will need to field a solid candidate to win in Virginia. That didn't happen in 2009.
The last point represents the Republicans best hope for November. The conservative enthusiasm of the moment is causing red district Democrats to retire and is bringing the best possible GOP candidates forward. The Democrats have had their wake up call and they control large majorities in both houses. Their fate is truly in their own hands. However - if they stumble - they will have quality opponents poised to take advantage.
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That's an interesting rationalization. I somehow doubt you chalked up Obama's defeat of McCain to the same "candidate quality" theory though - and we can all agree that McCain was also a lousy candidate. If the left wants to think Massachusetts wasn't a referendum on Obama's agenda, particularly health care, all the better for November 2010. Obama won the state by 26 points one year earlier. I encourage Obama, Reid and Pelosi to push further to the left to energize their base.
Jeff
You make an excellent point about McCain - one wonders why that election wasn't a blow out. It is fair to say that s really good GOP candidate may have been able to win - there simply wasn't one in the field.
Obama, Reid and Pelosi need to get legislation passed. They are the governing party with sizable majorities. If they cannot respond to the issues of the day, why should anyone vote for them?
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