By E.J. DIONNE JR.
All by themselves, Obama's victory and his appointments to his administration threaten four previously solid Democratic seats: Obama's old Illinois seat, Vice President Joe Biden's in Delaware, Salazar's in Colorado and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's in New York.
Republicans can reel off four other states where they currently have a better-than-decent shot at Democratic seats: the newly promising North Dakota, plus Arkansas, Nevada and Pennsylvania. And if the country is really gloomy on Nov. 2, the GOP thinks it has a shot at California.
Even this scenario would leave Republicans just short of a Senate majority, and Democrats are betting that they will easily hold New York and California, while hanging on to Nevada — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has relatively unknown opponents and will have a huge bank account — and Pennsylvania. Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln confronts the most difficult terrain of any Democrat this year, but she may profit from Republican divisions.
Then there are the Democrats' wild cards: five Republican seats where some combination of strong Democratic candidates, divisive Republican primaries, or potentially weak GOP nominees offers a chance to offset losses.
In rough descending order of possibility, these include Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina and Kentucky. Democrats can't bank on any of them, but just a win or two would buy their majority protection.
It's thus very hard to see how the Republicans can take over the Senate. But with North Dakota changing colors, the Democrats' map is not a happy one. If managing a barely filibuster-proof majority has been hell for the party's leaders, this now seems to be one burden they won't have to worry about next year.
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Actually - it is pretty good analysis.
I am in the optimistic camp, as is my nature. I think that the outlook will change as dramatically in the next eleven months as it did in the past eleven. I expect a growing economy and falling unemployment rate to help the governing party. Successfully pushing through health care reform - governing - will also be a net positive in November.
The Dems do need to pick a fight (cynical, I know) to get their base ginned up. Right now, all the passion belongs to the Teabaggers. The "passion ratio" needs to get evened up in the coming months for the Democrats to hold their large majorities.
As I have said and will say for months to come, it is a political eternity until election day. Absent an exogenous event, I cannot imagine the GOP picking up either house. 26 and 5 remain the over/under.
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