The new polls are interesting. Yes, Obama is down a few ticks (I'm saving you a post, Mark) and the polls have moved with respect to favoring a public option. The surprise is that they only moved 4 points from favoring the approach to opposed. After all the sound and fury of July and August and all the town tantrums, Americas view has changed... by 4 points.
The good news? It is crystal clear that there will not be any Republican votes for reform, with the possible exception of the two Maine senators. Grassley is facing a potential primary opponent and has dropped any pretense of negotiating in good faith.
So - the House will pass a liberal health insurance reform bill in September. The Senate will pass a more conservative one in October, without the public option. We'll get 60 votes for cloture. The Blue Dog Democrats will still have two chances to vote against the bill without killing it (there are 4 Senate Blue Dogs up for reelection in 2010). First, when they vote on the bill after cloture, we only need 50 votes. Second, after House/Senate reconciliation we'll only need 50 votes in the Senate. So - the hurdle is cloture and the Dems should be able to get affirmative Blue Dogs to "simply to allow a vote!"
Then - we will have meaningful health insurance reform in 2009. The bill will either have a public option or a non-profit option (that can be made public soon enough).
God Bless America!
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4 comments:
We will see. You are already counting Spector and Lieberman in your column in the Senate. I believe the Republicans will filibuster the health care reform bill. It is going to be a challenge to get 60 votes.
We will see is right. It is not a gimmee. Spector is facing a strong primary challenge. He will lose if he votes against the bill.
Ben Nelson isn't running until 2012. Blanche Lincoln - 2010 race in Arkansas - is the biggest question mark. I think Snowe and Collins will be available if needed.
I'll say this - I think they'll get cloture, but without a vote to spare.
No he will lose if he votes for the bill. Toomey has moved 23 points since this Health Care reform talk has started. The Democrats will also probably not get Lieberman. Ted Kennedy very possibly might not be healthy enoiugh to show up for the vote. He couldn't even muster the strength to attend his sister's funeral. It will be very difficult to get 60 votes.
Spector won't face Toomey if he votes against the bill. Joe Sestak will.
I have not heard any recent Lieberman comments, however, he has supported universal coverage pretty much forever. He parted with the Dems on foreign policy in general and Iraq in particular. Domestically, I think he remains firmly on the left.
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