The GOP's anticipated celebration was depressed last night by the Democratic victory in NY-23, last night's "most important" contest according to Michael Steele only a few days ago. Yes - the GOP picked up VA as anticipated and per longstanding trend. They also picked up NJ governorship, taking the top job in a deep blue state. However, neutral observers will tell you it was all about NJ and the candidates. NJ likes GOP governors - just ask Whitman and Kean. They didn't like Corzine much, barely electing him in his first two contests even after he spent tens of millions to get the job. In fact, recent polls in VA and NJ both showed strong support for Obama - higher than the national polls. So, comparisons to 2003 just don't hold.
What of NY-23? Joe Scarborough says Owens (D) should "rent, not buy" in DC as he will likely lose next November. Really? Won't his incumbency help him? Who will beat him? A Teabagger Republican in an area that always favored moderates? Or a moderate Republican who will surely face a vote-splitting Conservative on the ballot? That is the quandary that the GOP faces today all over the country, save for the south. Hoffman, Barney's Fife's weakling brother, wants to run again. I think it's safe for Owens to put down his 3.5% and buy a townhouse in Georgetown.
The GOP hardliners are embarking on a dangerous path. The "cultural revolution" that is apparently underway will lead to a small, regional party of the faithful with precious little power. Scozzafava favored gay marriage, just like Dick Cheney ("freedom is freedom"). She supported choice on the abortion issue, just as Mitt Romney did when running for governor and George HW Bush did prior to being tapped for Veep. Yet she didn't meet the Teabagger test and she was out. What moderate Republican would run for Congress or the Senate under these circumstances? The few remaining in Congress may run for reelection, but any moderate making their first run has only one party to choose from. Charlie Crist should seriously consider dropping out of the GOP and running for the Senate as an independent - now - before he is embarrassed by Rubio. Kay Bailey Hutchinson is almost sure to lose to the Teabagging, secessionist Rick Perry. She too should consider an independent bid BEFORE the primary. Both Crist and Hutchinson have the chops and the organization to pull it off with a one year head start.
This is going to be fun.
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6 comments:
Nice try Rich. The reason the Republican party lost this seat is because the NY Republican establishment is broken. Hoffman running as a third party candidate who only days ago was thrust into the national spotlight alsmost pulled this one off. The only reason he lost is because the republican candidate was still on the ballot and siphoned off enough votes to allow the Democrat to win. He will be gone in two years and I am willing to bet a large sum of money on this.
This election was a referendum on Barry's running of the economy. It will make every Blue Dog Democrat think very hard about how they will vote on this health care reform bill.
I do not boy the Carville drivel. He stated that if the Dems do not pass health care they will get slaughtered. I believe the opposite is true. If they pass health care and it drags on the economy, like it is guaranteed to because of all the new taxes and requirements put on employers, it will cause the democrats to get slaughtered in 2010.
The "Carville drivel" is conventional wisdom. I have said for months that the Dems must pass health care reform or face the likes of 1994. If the Dems can't govern, why elect them? With power comes responsibility.
Yes and that responsibilty does include the economy. Bankrupting the country is no way to lead.
Tell that to Reagan (who tripled the debt in his first term) and GWB (who doubled a much larger number over two terms).
Send Clinton a thank you note for paying down some of Ronnie's supply side debt.
Oh, I get it, the votes of 100,000 are much more important than the votes of 7,000,000.
This was not a "normal" race. It is very dissapointing that the "conservative candidate" did not win, however, this was a confused electorate with a lot of attention.
The "moderate" John McCain is not president the untra liberal Obama won.
We do better when we do not take advice from the opposition.
Everybody picks the data that fits their model of the electorate. There was not "an election" yesterday, there were three of them. NY 23 was a VERY special set of circumstances. The right side of the ledger got more votes than the left side. Clinton got lucky when Perot ran and split the vote, and whathisname got lucky yesterday. And, yes, New York's system absolutely sucks. Personally, that's all I think NY 23 demonstrated.
New Jersey saw a governor with an approval rating of about 40 lose by 4 point to a very mediocre candidate. I do think it is interesting that Obama couldn't save him. I also think that what will scare moderate Democrats is watching the "Obama Method" fail to work when Obama isn't on the ticket-- the kids and the minorities did not turn out and the independents went back to a more normal split. That was true in both NJ and VA.
In VA, the Commonwealth voted against the incumbant President's party for , what, the ninth time in a row? Wow, talk about populism in action! I've lived in Virgina twice, and, other than right around DC, it is not Obamaland. I think the so-called reversal just demonstates how badly Bush sucked and how much everyone wanted CHANGE. Who could blame them? But, VA is not MA, and big government in not welcome there. The result: a Republican sweep, all the way down the ticket.
Three elections, three messages. I think Harold Ford had it right on Morning Joe this morning: if there was a message it was Jobs and Taxes. If unemployment is 10%+ next fall, watch out Dems! And enough of those taxes!!! I do believe that if the opposition can reveal all the taxes imbedded in Nancy and Barack's bill then the public will barf all over them. That's the slaughter Dems better fear.
Hags
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